Please Note: Altman's Publicly Held model is probably the classic of this genre. The original data sample consisted of 66 firms, half of which had filed for bankruptcy under Chapter
7. All businesses in the database were manufacturers, and small firms with assets of less than $1 million were eliminated.
Also Note:
The z-score represents a point in time. As such, the z-scores should be
examined over time. Consistently low scores each year are more of a
concern than a one time low score.
The Z score has proven successful in the real world. It correctly predicted 72% of bankruptcies two years prior to the event. Z score profiles for failing businesses often indicate a consistent downward trend as they approach bankruptcy.
KEY:
Z-SCORE ABOVE 2.99--YOU'RE IN GOOD
SHAPE
Z-SCORE BETWEEN 2.99 and
1.81--WARNING SIGNS
Z-SCORE BELOW 1.81--BIG
TROUBLE--COULD BE HEADING TOWARD BANKRUPTCY